Skip to main content

Publication sale now on, get up to 70% off

Conference Proceedings

35th APCOM Symposium 2011

Conference Proceedings

35th APCOM Symposium 2011

Publication sale now on, get up to 70% off

PDF Add to cart

Robust Decision Making - Application to Mine Planning Under Price Uncertainty

Many projects fail because project performance in unfavourable economic conditions was not anticipated at the investment decision stage. This type of failure may have been avoided through the selection of a strategy that enables the project to perform well under a range of possible future economic conditions (a robust' strategy); rather than an optimal' strategy for expected future conditions that will never eventuate. This paper describes a method of rapidly generating mine plans for a number of project strategies, and then evaluating it against a representative range of equally likely economic conditions. The key performance indicators derived for each strategy are the mean value and the distribution of values (variance). A prudent investor will identify prospective strategies not only on the merit of highest mean values (as a proxy for economic reward), but also on the probability of not meeting specified investment hurdles (a proxy for risk). A robust strategy will achieve its financial objective even under adverse economic variations. This paper focuses on the effect of commodity price uncertainty; particularly around the choice of mining and processing capacity levels. Results from enumerating 2000 prices scenarios against 63 strategy combinations show how processing and mining capacity can be manipulated to manage the risk-reward trade-off.
Return to parent product
  • Robust Decision Making - Application to Mine Planning Under Price Uncertainty
    PDF
    This product is exclusive to Digital library subscription
  • Robust Decision Making - Application to Mine Planning Under Price Uncertainty
    PDF
    Normal price $22.00
    Member price from $0.00
    Add to cart

    Fees above are GST inclusive

PD Hours
Approved activity
  • Published: 2011
  • PDF Size: 0.761 Mb.
  • Unique ID: P201111033

Our site uses cookies

We use these to improve your browser experience. By continuing to use the website you agree to the use of cookies.