Computers and other microprocessor technology lead the world of
technological change. Nevertheless, the real advances in the world at
large are not necessarily in the computer industry, but in the industries
whose economics benefit most by the advances that this computer
revolution makes possible. The minerals industry has always been in the
forefront of this advance. Technological change in the era preceding the industrial revolution,
and the mining industry's part in it, provides an instructive lesson for
what is happening today. Strong parallels can be drawn for predicting
future advances. With each technological advance allowing more
efficient production comes a re-alignment of economics - absolute and
relative changes to prices, to quantities demanded, and to other market
characteristics. This re-alignment applies not only to the mineral
industry, but also to the world at large. Adaptability, rather than technical
advancement per se is the key to survival and growth in a changing world. 'Adaptability' as a concept is easy to support. As an operational
philosophy it is not so easy to implement. As a goal for planning, it is
much harder to quantify. A fixed scenario of a future world may provide
helpful guidelines, but a scenario that demands adaptability to an
uncertain future world is much less definite. Of course, everyone else in
the world is also uncertain about the future, and they are making their
plans using different assumptions. This virtually guarantees that our
future will turn out different to our expectations. This is in part what
Hayek (1945) calls the 'knowledge' problem. Until now, most of the
planning and technical research undertaken in the world has ignored this
problem. This ignorance is a luxury that we can no longer afford. The paper looks at the history of technological change and highlights
the characteristics of successful technological revolutions. 'Adaptability'
to unforeseen circumstances is the key to success in this environment.
The paper examines the knowledge problem from the perspective of the
mineral industry, and suggests a number of directions for maximising the
returns from application of computer technology in this important area.