Is the profitable exploitation of space resources like fusion technology? Only 20 years out, and always will be. The authors think not! Space resources viability could change rapidly with modest improvements to the certainty and disposition of resources and to the required technologies.
The first connection between Space Resources and the terrestrial economy will be by contributing to the existing space operations economy. All the current lifting of geostationary equatorial orbit satellites could be performed using propellant derived from water ice at the lunar poles. Lunar derived propellants could also supply the developing market for satellite servicing and station keeping, or orbit modification, propellants in sun synchronous and geostationary equatorial orbits. Safely removing dangerous orbital debris will require substantial amounts of propellant. Lunar propellants could contribute to the sustainability of the US Artemis and other mooted international lunar and Mars exploration programs. There is the potential for even larger propellant markets lifting space based solar power stations. Supplying the SpaceX Mars program would require a million tons of lunar propellant in low Earth orbit every 26 months.
For a mining style cash flow pattern, large initial investments followed by ongoing positive revenue, the time horizon to achieve an internal rate of return (IRR) hurdle can be very sensitive to changes in the ratio of the initial cost to ongoing revenues. Modest changes can pull the time to achieving a viable IRR from forty years down to a decade. Ongoing public investments in lunar scientific exploration, resource utilisation proofs of concept, and pilot plants will prepay initial costs and reduce uncertainty. The authors’ work focuses on understanding uncertainty, reducing production costs, and increasing revenues per ton mined on the Moon.
Off Earth mining has many layers: choice of resource, excavation, beneficiation, extraction, power, transportation, logistics, products, markets, and the players. In many cases, improvements on one layer multiply with those of another. By doubling the market price, the efficiency of extraction, and transportation efficiency, one achieves an eight times improvement in recoverable value.