Conference Proceedings
12th International Mining Geology Conference 2022
Conference Proceedings
12th International Mining Geology Conference 2022
Value of information – blasthole assay tool spacing analysis using geostatistical simulations
Orebodies constitute naturally occurring, commonly highly variable concentrations of minerals in the earth’s crust formed through varying and highly unpredictable processes. Orebody knowledge is a core foundation of a mining company’s asset base underpinning all decisions about Mineral Resource and Ore Reserves, future production, development and ultimately the profitability and competitiveness of a mining enterprise. The decision to invest in a mineral project is usually based upon a techno-economic evaluation of the project and having clear approval pathways to gain local community support and address social and environmental impacts. The main objective of the techno-economic evaluation is to determine the optimum development sequence for the particular orebody in question and to estimate the economic viability of the project and the future return on investment to its stakeholders, balancing the inherent value of the mineral in the ground against the costs of development and market pricing. With the exception of market-driven commodity prices, virtually all revenue and cost estimates fundamentally stem from the understanding and subsequent modelling of the orebody. A reliable estimate of the ore deposit grade and other geological value-drivers is the foundation upon which the business case for future mine development and operation is intricately dependent. Orebody knowledge is, therefore, the fundamental driver of the mineral project cycle, influencing the progression of studies and consequently, the resource company’s ability to declare Exploration Results, Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves which govern the source and cost of funding available to the project. Drilling provides a ‘vector’ to the true nature of the orebody and effectively buys time to manage the technical risk associated with the orebody. Despite its perceived high cost, in both time and money terms, drilling is the only available technology for acquiring the necessary orebody knowledge to support technical and economic studies and to minimise orebody-driven cash flow uncertainty and volatility. However, like all costs, pressure to minimise drilling budgets is ubiquitous across the minerals industry. Paired with inappropriate key performance indicators, drilling is often regarded as a cost to be minimised, rather than an investment to be optimised. Furthermore, as future deposits get deeper and more complex, the collection of orebody knowledge is increasingly on the critical path for project development. The increasing cost of data collection pertaining to these deposits increases the temptation to minimise orebody knowledge gathering at the cost of long-term value as the reduction or postponement of drilling results in greater orebody knowledge risk at all stages of the value chain. Indeed the true cost of the decision to drill less is rarely known until the mine is in operation, well after the mine project evaluation team has moved on. This paper aims to promote orebody knowledge as the fundamental source of endogenous project financial risk and, consequently, its critical importance in project financial evaluation. Furthermore, the report documents experimental research into the development of an econometric model for valuing orebody knowledge. Using the density of drilling data as a proxy measure of orebody knowledge, the proposed approach integrates well-established stochastic grade modelling techniques with the mathematical mechanics of Decoupled Net Present Value (DNPV) which, combined with stochastic grade modelling (conditional simulation), lends itself to the financial International Mining Geology Conference 2022 | Brisbane, Australia and Online | 22–23 March 2022 3 assessment of orebody knowledge risk. Based on this approach, a metric is formulated, representing the minimum value of the orebody knowledge added by additional drilling
Contributor(s):
J Ashford and I Minniakhmetov
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- Published: 2022
- PDF Size: 0.712 Mb.
- Unique ID: P-01855-G5W2F4