Environmental regulators are increasingly adopting risk-based approaches to protect aquatic ecosystems. The Australian and New Zealand Environment and Conservation Council (ANZECC) and the Agriculture and Resource Management Council of Australia and New Zealand (ARMCANZ) (2000) introduced a risk-based approach to water quality guidelines that use decision frameworks to adapt water quality guidelines to local environmental conditions. Environmental quality objectives are no longer a simple pass or fail' number such as restricting total suspended solids (TSS) concentration to a specified limit for a particular rainfall event. This approach ignores spatial and temporal variability and the complexity of aquatic ecosystems. The risk-based approach establishes levels where adverse effects may occur. If these objectives are not met, further risk-based investigation is undertaken to assess the potential impact to the ecosystem. Klohn Crippen Berger (KCB) developed a dynamic simulation to predict the variability of sediment discharges, which is applicable for risk-based impact assessment of aquatic ecosystems. The application of the methodology over the life of a mine site is illustrated using a proposed South Pacific mine.The site location is in extremely rugged terrain with a high annual rainfall of approximately 4.7 m. There were two major sediment ponds proposed to reduce sediment discharges. A sediment and hydrology model was developed in Goldsim to provide daily estimates of run-off flows and sediment concentrations. A modified algorithm based on the Australian water balance model was created and incorporated into the Goldsim model and calibrated using recorded field data.The sediment module was developed based on a Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) assessment, an annual prediction of soil loss over a catchment. A land-use type erosion vector was developed for different land-use types and for each of the subcatchments, a subcatchment erodibility vector was calculated. This vector and the daily rainfall erosivity factor were used to estimate the daily soil loss. The estimated soil loss and the modelled run-off yielded predictions of daily sediment concentrations. Finally, a sediment settling module was used to predict the daily efficiency of the sediment ponds and hence discharged sediment concentrations.The results of this modelling form the first part of a quantitative risk-based assessment into suspended solids impacts. The second part is the assessment of the effects of these predicted TSS concentrations on aquatic ecology. As part of the feedback-loop required in a risk management framework, if the environmental quality objectives are not met then further management decisions and actions may be required to reduce the risks presented by suspended solids. This may include modifications to: the mine-development plan; construction techniques and scheduling; processing techniques; rehabilitation strategies; or hard-engineering solutions such as sediment basins or flocculation.The Goldsim water-balance model provides a quick and efficient method of testing potential remedial actions on predicted sediment loads and concentrations. In combination with a cost-benefit assessment, options for reducing sediment releases from the mine site can be effectively and quantitatively compared thereby providing mine operators with a basis for decision-making. Regulators can also be satisfied that potential impacts to aquatic ecology have been comprehensively assessed and the necessary management decisions have been initiated to limit risk to the environment.CITATION:Ind, M and Usher, B, 2014. A dynamic sediment simulation to predict the variability of suspended solids concentrations over life-of-mine for application to a risk-based environmental assessment, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2014 , pp 191-204 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).