The Northwest Territories (NWT) of Canada has emerged as a major new
province for diamond mineralisation in less than three years. This is
primarily the product of a diligent search in the form of a scientifically
based exploration effort. However other factors, including positive
aspects of the business and the legal environment have also been
identified as assisting the exploration process. In my view these have
increased the likelihood of diamond mining becoming a major new
industry for Canada. The supportive role of various government agencies has been
important. In addition, the character of many of the joint venture deals
that have been done has provided an attractive setting for the capital
intensive evaluation and development work that is now required to bring
the diamond discoveries into production. Perhaps of equal importance is
that with the recognition that is being given to the success of the NWT
diamond ventures, Canadian explorers are continuing to attract new risk
capital for further exploration. This paper attempts to model and quantify the probability of
exploration success translating into successful mine development.