The organisers of this function have suggested that this presentation should accomplish the following broad goals:set the technical tone for the conference to follow, implying some discussion of the state-of-the-art' of reserve estimation; andraise some current and common problems or deficiencies in our art in order to be thought provoking. As an engineer it is always easier to raise problems than to solve them with state-of-the-art. Consequently, I have had to limit the extensive list of problems that could have been discussed within this presentation. In regard to the state-of-the-art, this presentation will not be an esoteric discussion of the latest statistical estimation processes, although I intend to challenge those with skills in that area to address some of the thought provoking issues later on. The subtitle of the paper was established after reading an excerpt from Life on the Mississippi' by the American humorist Mark Twain in which Twain observed that the Mississippi River had become shorter during his working period on the River due to natural cut-offs and man made channels. Projecting into the future, he calculated that by now, Cairo, Missouri and New Orleans, Louisiana would become a single city with one mayor (the two cities are still separated by some 500 air miles). As a moral to this story Mark Twain observed that one can obtain: wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact'.