Conference Proceedings
Mine Waste and Tailings 2018
Conference Proceedings
Mine Waste and Tailings 2018
Risk-based approach for minimising tailings dam failures
The total number of tailings accidents has reduced from over 50/decade in the 1960s-1980s to less than 30/decade in the 2000s to 2010s._x000D_
However, the rate of significant tailings dam failures has not been reduced._x000D_
The significant tailings dam failures the mining industry experienced in the recent history include: Merriespruit, South Africa, 1994; Los Frails, Spain, 1998; Kolontr, Hungry, 2010; Mount Polley, Canada, 2014; and Samarco, Brazil, 2015. The conventional Factor of Safety approach itself may not be enough to further reduce the rate of significant tailings failures due to its limitations such as uncertainty._x000D_
For example, the same factor of safety could have a vast range of annual probability of failure for different tailings dams, and insufficient consideration of failure consequence._x000D_
This paper presents a risk based approach for design with the objective being to minimise tailings dam failures, especially those significant tailings failures with high consequence and low probability._x000D_
This approach includes risk based design and risk management using bowtie tools._x000D_
In the risk based design, quantitative analysis will be used to estimate the annual probability of failure and the tolerable failure criteria is linked to the consequence category._x000D_
Bowtie analyses will be used to understand hazards and risks and identify and select independent controls that are effective in preventing and mitigating catastrophic failures._x000D_
In this paper, examples of risk based design and bowtie analyses are presented and discussed._x000D_
CITATION:Li, H and Barker, M, 2018. Risk-based approach for minimising tailings dam failures, in Proceedings Mine Waste and Tailings Stewardship Conference 2018, pp 397-414 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).
However, the rate of significant tailings dam failures has not been reduced._x000D_
The significant tailings dam failures the mining industry experienced in the recent history include: Merriespruit, South Africa, 1994; Los Frails, Spain, 1998; Kolontr, Hungry, 2010; Mount Polley, Canada, 2014; and Samarco, Brazil, 2015. The conventional Factor of Safety approach itself may not be enough to further reduce the rate of significant tailings failures due to its limitations such as uncertainty._x000D_
For example, the same factor of safety could have a vast range of annual probability of failure for different tailings dams, and insufficient consideration of failure consequence._x000D_
This paper presents a risk based approach for design with the objective being to minimise tailings dam failures, especially those significant tailings failures with high consequence and low probability._x000D_
This approach includes risk based design and risk management using bowtie tools._x000D_
In the risk based design, quantitative analysis will be used to estimate the annual probability of failure and the tolerable failure criteria is linked to the consequence category._x000D_
Bowtie analyses will be used to understand hazards and risks and identify and select independent controls that are effective in preventing and mitigating catastrophic failures._x000D_
In this paper, examples of risk based design and bowtie analyses are presented and discussed._x000D_
CITATION:Li, H and Barker, M, 2018. Risk-based approach for minimising tailings dam failures, in Proceedings Mine Waste and Tailings Stewardship Conference 2018, pp 397-414 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).
Contributor(s):
H Li, M Barker
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- Published: 2018
- Unique ID: P201801034