This paper outlines the contributing factors to a series of erroneous Mineral Resource estimates which led to considerable loss, including significant reduction of mine life and consequently a large write-down of asset value. The error prompted divestment of the mineral asset in the short-term by the owners, a major mining company.
There were multiple and complex contributions to the result:
• The mine was undergoing a transition in the deposit geology with increasing depth that was not accommodated in the models. Early indications of the geological transition in initial drilling were generally unrecognised in resource modelling. The shortcomings of the models became apparent with increasing infill drilling and subsequent production reconciliation.
• There was a lack of recognition of, and confidence in, site-based input and skills by corporate technical management. The site had a reputation internally for over-delivery to plan early in its life and that supported the anticipation of ongoing metal delivery into the mine plan by management.
• A corporate lack of confidence in site being able to adequately domain the mineralisation led to the use of a CIK domaining process, rather than one which was geologically based. This domaining process led to gross over-statement of mineralisation trends reflected in the subsequent OK estimate.
• Timelines on the outsourced estimation process were so short that validation was not possible. Obvious errors in the estimate versus data were not able to be used to correct the issues and the site’s Competent Person sign-off occurred without adequate checks.
This case study is presented to reinforce the concept that Mineral Resource estimates are not solely based on the ability of the Competent Person to satisfactorily guide the process. There are usually multiple complex issues in the estimation process which need to be recognised and considered in judging reconciliations of model to actual.