The variability and uncertainty of mineralisation, coupled with subsequent uncertainty in mining and processing, is often paid scant regard or overlooked during the evaluation of mining projects. In many instances, when the project transitions to the operational phase, the reality of feed or product variability and the consequences of unquantified uncertainties throughout the value chain become obvious. The outcome is the familiar picture of frequent ramp-up underperformance and failure to deliver on planned targets and objectives.Both mine and exploration geologists are expected to generate mineral deposit models that are based on an integration of diverse sources of data. These multifaceted deposit models already play a pivotal role in the design, development and optimisation of mining project value, and the trend to a fully digitally engineered future means that this importance is increasing. It is therefore vitally important that tools be made available to the geologist (as well as mining engineers and metallurgists) that enable them to characterise and assess variability and uncertainty via appropriate deposit models and thus articulate their impact on potential project configurations and decisions. Scenario-based project evaluation (SBPE) provides a framework for full and proper analysis of the downstream impacts of inherent deposit variability and uncertainty on project performance.SBPE has been developed by the authors over several years and aims to propagate geological uncertainty and variability through the mining value chain. The outcomes of SBPE can be tested against future external scenarios capturing financial, economic and socio-political factors that also drive project performance. Stochastic representations of the orebody (via conditional simulation (see Chils and Delfiner, 1999)) that explicitly incorporate variability and represent uncertainty are propagated through the value chain on a block-by-block basis (ie on a much more granular basis than traditional project evaluation approaches).Conventionally, metallurgical processes are modelled with deterministic equations (eg regression models) based on limited data. The SBPE approach allows for the modelling of process performance uncertainty using geometallurgical sampling fully. Multiple outcomes of SBPE are passed through financial modelling, which can also incorporate stochastic components, thus allowing full quantification of the risks and opportunities of a set of project alternatives. The value of the SBPE system is that once a base case has been established, multiple engineered alternatives coupled with external scenarios are easily evaluated and compared in terms of incremental value.A new case study of SBPE is presented that shows how, by analysis of the various aspects of variability and uncertainty, project managers are able to focus on the areas that have the greatest ability to reduce risk and/or add significant value. This can lead to sufficient flexibility being built into operations that allow operators to cope with the real orebody delivered to the plant.CITATION:Jackson, S, Vann, J E, Coward, S and Moayer, S, 2014._x000D_
Scenario-based project evaluation - full mineral value chain stochastic simulation to evaluate development and operational alternatives, in Proceedings Ninth International Mining Geology Conference 2014 , pp 21-32 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).