The widely accepted concept of mineral resources are that they are finite - mining therefore being intrinsically unsustainable. Yet the modern global mining industry continues to grow production at strong rates - how can this be? In reality, mining is a complex industry, starting with exploration, development, operations and then rehabilitation and closure. A recent major study of Australia has shown that for most mineral commodities, exploration continues to find new deposits, or expand resources at existing mines. In parallel, however, there are a number of key mega-trends' which are growing in their importance - declining ore grades (or quality), increasing tailings and waste rock volumes, the need for deeper mining, more refractory ore types, increasing energy inputs and higher unit energy costs, increasing pollution issues and, of course, not to forget greenhouse gas emissions issues._x000D_
This paper will present a detailed case study of the ultimate sustainability of the Australian mining industry - showing long term historical data sets on ore grades, waste volumes and economic resources and placing these trends in light of major twenty-first century issues such as energy supplies (especially Peak Oil), climate change and existing and emerging land use conflicts (eg agriculture versus mining). Australia is a critical case study in the sustainability of mining, as it is a major global exporter of numerous commodities, and this is expected to continue to underpin the ongoing industrialisation of countries such as China and India. The ultimate question begs - can Australia actually meet this fundamental challenge, or will our resources run out, or will we be constrained by environmental issues such as climate change, land use or perhaps water? Rather than a mere optimist's or pessimist's view, this paper will present a range of hard data which underpins the debate about the sustainability of mining this century: ultimately, we cannot assume that the patterns of past mining will continue to work in the future. The sustainability of mining continues to hang in a precarious balance._x000D_
FORMAL CITATION:Mudd, G M, 2010. The ultimate sustainability of mining - linking key mega-trends with 21st century challenges, in Proceedings Sustainable Mining 2010, pp 351-373 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).