Best practice standards generally recommend assessment of the environmental and societal risks posed by tailings storage facilities, but they rarely specify how the analysis should be made. As a case study, this paper describes a safety assessment of the elazny Most tailings pond operated by the Hydrotechnical Unit of KGHM Polska Mied SA in Poland. The complete assessment includes a failure mode effect criticality analysis (FMECA) that considers all conceivable failure modes, but this paper focuses on one key mode, the loss of stability during the planned raising of the crest above its current level. Reliability against static dam failure considers uncertainty on the safety factor in a limit equilibrium approach. The threat of dynamic (earthquake induced) instability is assessed by developing a model of future seismicity as a function of the mining plan and considering uncertainty on the induced permanent displacements along critical sliding surfaces. We quantify the additional level of protection against outflow provided by the beach using an event tree with expert-assigned probabilities. Continuous monitoring of the dam for premonitory signs of instability and a set of loss-prevention plans in the case of a spill provide additional layers of protection; their effectiveness is quantified by estimating the fraction of the population that could be evacuated as a function of warning time. The probabilistic analysis indicates that the safety targets are met and produces practical recommendations on how to maintain and improve the safety level while the dam crest is raised above its current level.CITATION:Van Dyck, J, Pytel, W, Veneziano, D, Snow, R and Zanoli, O, 2015. Safety of a tailings storage facility against dam instability, in Proceedings Tailings and Mine Waste Management for the 21st Century , pp 253-262 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).