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Conference Proceedings

The AusIMM Proceedings 1983

Conference Proceedings

The AusIMM Proceedings 1983

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Statistical Methods for Economic Evaluation of a Coal Seam

Six simulations by the Mpnte Carlo method employing both classical and geostatistical techniques are presented for the determination of the probability distribution of the in situ value of a coal seam. To avoid the problem of qualitative estimation of parameter variability in the calculation of an arbitrary seam value, only data values from borehole information were used to quantify the variation in four coai seam parameters.The method which is suggested as being the most appropriate is a particular geostatistical approach that employs the best linear unbiased estimate and the error of estimation for a number of two dimensional blocks. The results indicate that the variance of the coal seam unit value may be much higher than that indicated by the classical approach because of the spatial variability that is properly incorporated in the geostatistical approach.The model used in the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the economic value of a coal seam can be extended to incorporate all those parameters which are necessary for a true estimation of the probability distribution of the coal seam value. A time value concept for discounting can also be incorporated to optimize the economic return of a coal mining project.
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  • Published: 1983
  • PDF Size: 0.889 Mb.
  • Unique ID: P_PROC1983_1590

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