This paper reviews the likelihood of instability occurring within coking coal cargoes from BHP Coal's northern Bowen Basin mines. In coal cargoes, initial moisture redistributes vertically towards the base, saturating the bottom layers unless the bilge wells are pumped regularly. There has been concern in some quarters that saturated coal in the basal layer may be prone to liquefaction, and if the vessel then rolls significantly in rough seas, overall sliding movement of the cargo might occur. However, a review of shipping accident statistics reveals that casualties relating to shifting of coal cargoes are quite rare, and have not occurred in modern large bulk carriers (>15 000 dwt).
The moisture redistribution process has been analysed to quantify the extent of cargo saturation that may occur. Results indicate that the amount of redistribution increases with initial moisture content above a threshold of eight to nine per cent. However, the removal of water by pumping from the bilges is remarkably effective in reducing the extent of saturated coal (and therefore the possibility of cargo liquefaction and movement), and in controlling the average moisture content of the bottom layers of cargo. Stability analyses were then performed for deep sliding of a cargo with a saturated and liquefied base. These have confirmed that sliding of a cargo with a liquefied base during rough seas (20 roll angles) would require initial total moisture content exceeding 13 per cent, the hold half full or less (width/depth >3), and no bilge pumping so that height of the saturated zone is as deep as possible.
Overall, the results indicate that coking coal cargoes from BHP Coal's northern Bowen Basin mines will be unlikely to suffer sliding or liquefaction failures when transported in modern large bulk carriers.