Underground mine ventilation system design in Kazakhstan is based on standards and regulations approved in early nineties of last century, which were adopted from Soviet era normative. Those normative utilise calculation methodologies based on requirements for outmoded equipment. Main problem is that old outdated local regulations use overestimated airflow quantity to dilute diesel emissions and dust, and a complicated ventilation network. The aim of this study is to analyse financial risks associated with use of the outdated local regulations compare to more modern world regulations. To solve outlined above issues, a case study has been conducted at a metal mine operating in Kazakhstan. The mine needs additional investments for optimisation of its ventilation systems, and therefore the financial risks associated with such modernisation should be estimated. Ventilation systems at the zinc-lead mine under the old outdated local regulations and under more modern world regulations have been designed.
Risk analysis considers problems related with overstated expenses for the ventilation system using the outdated local regulations. Utilising the modern regulation requirements for dilution of diesel toxic gases, the air quantity can be decreased on 30%. Stochastic modeling of Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for both regulations ventilation systems design have been produced with help of Monte Carlo simulation. Financial model use electricity pricing as a major variability for the simulation. As result, the probability distribution for the outdated regulation ventilation system design demonstrates the IRR has the range of 10-18% within the corresponding defined value of 90%, and for the modern regulations 16-24%, correspondingly. Performed risk analysis recommends implementing the modern regulations for Kazakhstans mines the ventilation system design that will benefit for saving energy costs.
Results of this study will help to analyse ventilation efficiency in agreement with underground mine safety regulations and might assist Kazakhstan change the outdated regulations for the better. CITATION:Sabanov, S, Tussupbekov, Y, Karzhau, A and Aldamzharov, B, 2019. Risk analysis of ventilation system design regulations for mines operating in Kazakhstan, in Proceedings Australian Mine Ventilation Conference 2019, pp 107116 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).