To provide an indication of expected performance of the mine and mill, feasibility studies should include an assessment of the expected day-to-day variability in process plant feed. Attempts to do this based on conventional resource models will be flawed as such studies fail to consider and account for the in-built smoothing (averaging) of input data.This can lead to one of two situations: an expensive, over-engineered process plant that can cope with every possible situation, or operational strategies that fail to manage the natural variability within the orebody and the impact of day-to-day operational decision-making._x000D_
In both cases the value of the project diminishes through excessive capital costs or reduced throughput or recovery during operations.Unlike conventional estimation techniques, the geostatistical method of conditional simulation can reproduce the inherent variability of the deposit. Once a valid model has been developed, it is possible to analyse the model using a transfer function that simulates the proposed mining processes and provides a representation of the likely variation of mill feed characteristics at any time scale.The case study demonstrates how the proposed mining strategy would result in mill feed being considerably more variable than expected, resulting in poor recovery, low throughput and potential breaches of environmental conditions. Mitigation measures included budgeting for additional mining equipment to enable greater flexibility during mining and revised stockpiling and crusher feed strategies.Awareness of the benefits of modelling the variability of geometallurgical parameters will increase the use of this approach in producing more realistic financial models of expected mine performance at the design stage.CITATION:Shaw, W J, Khosrowshahi, S and Weeks, A, 2013. Modelling geometallurgical variability - a case study in managing risk, in Proceedings The Second AusIMM International Geometallurgy Conference (GeoMet) 2013, pp 247-252 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).