Effective minesite water management requires that this issue be treated as a risk management exercise. The management process is generally far from simple and by necessity must involve a range of personnel covering a site's commercial, operational and environmental interests and responsibilities. The challenge to be collectively faced by these stakeholders is to strike the correct balance between risk and cost. On the other hand, the challenge to be faced by technical services support personnel is to provide stakeholders with information in a format that they can use with confidence._x000D_
This paper presents the application of continuous operational simulation (OPSIM) modelling techniques to establish appropriate risk profiles for minesite operations. It is necessary that the format of these risk profiles be generic and equally applicable for defining the risk of occurrence for a relatively comprehensive range of activities - eg from of a non-compliant discharge, to the risk of failure to meet production targets. What is more, the profiles need to be quantitatively based and capable of reflecting change in system response to varied operational or management strategies._x000D_
The techniques presented in this paper are based around a key assumption that long-term records of the climate contain within them sets of sequences that are representative of what can be expected in the future - that is, the droughts, floods, cyclones, good years and bad, long or short, and everything in between. Therefore, if these historical records are run through an OPSIM model for a particular site, then the simulated operational characteristics can be taken as being representative of what can be expected in the future, in the long-term. This lends itself to statistical analysis and translation into the required risk based format._x000D_
Water Solutions Pty Ltd have been working with Capricorn Coal Management to develop a relatively comprehensive OPSIM model of their operations at German Creek Mine, Central Queensland. Outcomes from the modelling have been used in recent times to provide mine management with risk-based guidelines for both securing and containing mine water inventories. One of the more interesting tasks has been to establish risk based inventory levels that, if reached, would trigger the immediate implementation of a contract for the desalination and re-use of mine water, at predefined rates. Also, lead-time warning of the occurrence of a possible trigger is of importance to operational and commercial planning. To service this requirement the OPSIM model is regularly used to produce lead-time estimates to defined levels of confidence. Case studies of these, and other, applications of the OPSIM model at German Creek Mine are presented in this paper and serve to demonstrate an effective methodology for practical risked based water management.